In mid-July of 2024, a political event took place, which for those who have the examined more deeply, has a disturbing, if infrequent precedent in the the world’s most powerful democracy: an incumbent president decided not to run for reelection due to pressure within his own party. Disturbing as the trend, although uncommon, appears to reside in the domain of the Democratic Party. President Truman decided not to run for a 2nd term in 1952 amidst historically unpopularity; his replacement, senator Adlai Stevenson of Illinois was soundly beaten in a landslide by former general Dwight Eisenhower (whom the Democrats had earlier courted, to no avail). Sixteen years later, President Lyndon B. Johnson shocked the nation by announcing he would not run for reelection. The resulting Democrat convention of 1968 was marked by violence and party infighting as police under the Democrat mayor of Chicago beat protesters and bystanders on alike with truncheons live on national TV. Hubert Humphrey lost in a landslide election to fomer VP Richard Nixon, who clinched his coveted goal on the 2nd attempt (he had lost to John F Kennedy in 1962.
Beset by the Watergate scandal despite winning a 2nd term, Nixon resigned as impeachment proceedings in Congress were underway. President Jimmy Carter , who beat Nixon’s VP Gerald Ford in 1976 , ran for a 2nd term but lost amidst sinking popularity due to high inflation, the Iran hostage crisis and an inter-party challenge by Senator Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. The Democrats would not enjoy a two-term President until Bill Clinton took the White House in 1992, with the simple message: “Its the economy, stupid.”
The short-lived recession of 1990-1991 gave way to a decade of prosperity, not soon enough to save President George Bush Sr from defeat but saving Clinton who finished his 2nd term in 2000. A succession of two -term presidents (Bush Jr, Obama) followed, with the one-term cycle resuming in with Trump losing reelection in 2020 and Biden bowing out in 2024. Whether his replacement, former VP Harris, is successful remains to be seen.
The 2024 election has similarities to 1968: Nixon and Humphrey were both former vice-president’s as was Harris and Biden. In 1968, the country was torn by riots, the Vietnam War, the assassinations of Robert Kennedy (whom any believe would have beaten Nixon) and Martin Luther King, social and cultural upheaval. Nixon consequently pitched a “law and order” message to the “silent majority.” Economically, inflation was barely discernible and the country had two decades of prosperity since the end of World War II in 1945.
Sixty years since the passage of the Civil rights legislation in 1964, the United States appears poised to enter a period of renewed turmoil. Media and talking heads across the spectrum describe a mostly negative future, conspiracy theories are gaining traction among a younger audience and cultural-political polarization shows no signs of abating. What does this bode for the next 10+ years, from the mid-2020s through the 2030s?
Rather than give my own, subjective opinion (this is not Twitter, I encourage you to view the following podcasts and shows on Youtube, a site less known for disinformation than walking tours of cities most of us will never visit and how to (save money by) DIY fixes on your car/home/current partner. I have included only those that I have watched, and therefore vouch personally – one from a Gen Z digital nomad historian, one from a Gen X geo-political consultant, and the third from Boomer founder of the world’s largest hedge fund – darkly informative yet plausible (or probable) visions of our future. Who is right or are all of them in some way? You decide
The editor
KC JOURNAL POST 